Fast Talk

Let's look at the historical precedent here for some clues. During the Great Depression (sorry to bring it up), people flocked to theaters in record numbers. In 1930, a staggering 65% of the American public went to see a movie each week. That's like if 165 million people went to see "Beverly Hills Chihuahua" this coming weekend (total gross would be around $1.1 billion). Adjusted for inflation, 1939's "Gone with the Wind" would have made $1.4 billion in the US alone (!), which mops the floor with the actual record (Titanic, a mere $600m domestically). In the year 2000, a time of unprecedented prosperity, the percentage was only around 10% weekly attendance. Why the huge drop? Let me count the ways - TV, home video, internet, Netflix, etc., etc... The point is that the movies are no longer America's escape from hard times. That idea has been pushing up daisies since the 1950s. The only reason that we've seen record setting figures for movies in the last few years is due to insanely high ticket prices. The current economy, growing ever worse, will NOT be good for Hollywood. High ticket prices and abundant cheaper alternatives for leisure will keep people away from the theaters. Expect the worst holiday movie season in years this winter.

Better. People turn to the cinematic experience as an "escape" in hard times. The film industry is a global commodity market, in which America presides as Queen, the finance of which relies on an established, self-sustaining business network. This makes it a "safe" and stable industry in the midst of the gloom and doom on Wall street, to capitalize on its intrinsic characteristics is only natural.

Innovation in Hollywood (no poster child here---we can compete with Sony!), as a global business circuit (innovations in content and content delivery, e.g., integrated insperiences, expansion of its role in social networking) is a strategy which may steer us away from the lure of nostalgia.

Hollywood will do well. They have always done well. Even during the great depression of the thirties people turned out to watch as a method of escape. They may not have multimillion dollar blockbuster sales like they have the last 20 or so years, but the base of their demographic will not disappear.

Consumer habits obviously change with the economy. Outdoor recreation companies survive economic hard times because most families won't fly to Disney World but they'll buy a new tent and camp stove for a weekend in the woods. Maybe movie-going will increase if people are cutting back spending in other ways? Everyone still wants to have fun. But I think the money that funds Hollywood hits will shrink and so maybe we'll see a proliferation of lean and mean indie films.

Blockbusters will do better. Small independent films will probably suffer.

Better - it's cocooning time and a movie is still one of the cheapest escapades that you can forget about in the morning. I predict most people will also gain 10 inches - in TV size. Got shares in Circuit City?

If come back to the origin, carm down and not too much pride, try to get resourece from history/nature/art/nation, I think Hollywood will finally turn to a new spring!

After thinking some more (thinking is always good), I wanted to respond to Brendan Collins's comments. There is no real comparison between the Crash of 1929, which started in Germany and Austria, to that which has befallen us today. Unless the similarity is that they both prove the insanity of greed, as well as the folly of regarding paper profits as equal to having real money in the bank. The facts are that today, as in 1930s America, Americans will have to do more with less. They will have fewer options to choose from, especially for entertainment. But they will make choices, and some of those choices will include the movies. They might decide to spend those tight entertainment dollars on dvds at home, versus first-run movies in a theater, or viewing a favorite TV show for a cheaper rental fee on iTunes--but Hollywood still wins. They'll just push those movies from the theater to the home market faster and faster, charge more for the online TV and movie fees we're already paying, and begin charging for the stuff we're getting now for free. Americans won't have the dizzying options outside the home and theater on which to spend those dollars, either: no more crazily cheap flites to Arizona or Florida in January, or 3-day ski vacations to Utah or Colorado in February. The price of gas alone precludes some people traveling over the holidays, so they'll start looking for their escapes closer and closer to home. Movies will be a big part of that escape. They're safe. They're known. There's a theater at every mall, or on every corner. So that 10% figure quoted --which ocurred under normal circumstances--will rise during these uncertain and abnormal times. Perhaps, simply by virtue of some of the other categories disappearing, that once vied for the same dollar. And because people will become more traditional and conservative in their consumer habits for awhile. They won't risk the weekend getaway, but they most likely will take the kids and a few of their friends to a Saturday afternoon movie--paying for the tickets plus popcorn, which is rumored to be where the theater chains get most of their real profits, anyway. They might not do Chuck E Cheese for 20, a birthday party, but they might do a movie party for 6. They won't risk the annual Christmas sprees and splurges in the way they've done in the past. Card lists will get trimmed to save postage, emailed cards will jump in popularity, Starbucks coffees and long lunches at Don Pablos at the mall may not happen at all, if nobody's there to shop anyway. But the movies will get people away from home, and yet give them a warm, dry place to land. There's all the socializing beforehand, and the debating over which film to see, and the satisfaction you get when everyone loves your choice, afterwards. It's a social event as much as it is 'something to do'. People crave that networking in real life, despite the bewildering array of online video games and chat rooms and Facebook 'hookups'. And a matinee for $5, is still cheaper than a dinner out, most days of the week. I agree with the commenter who said that the average TV screen size will go up in most American homes. People will watch more TV. They kight buy a bigger Tv--but not the latest iPhone this year. Board games and "family nite at home" might come back in a big way, for those with shallower pockets, too. And that's not all bad. But I guarantee you, Hollywood will not lose as much as the average American will, by the time this is all over.

During difficult times, people use entertainment to get away from what worries them, so I am sure Hollywood will be just fine.

TL Coleman hit the nail on the head! Is there any reason for any of us to say more? I agree with all of you that believes Hollywood will not suffer.